Ford in Free-Fall

Reuters reports that Ford's April sales numbers fell 13 percent from a year ago. This might be easily dismissed as just the next chapter in the ongoing saga of Ford's difficulties, but the breakdown of the results yields some surprising results.

Ford's Expedition, a monster SUV, saw its sales rise 27%. And the Navigator, another leviathan, had sales that rose 13%. In contrast, the F-series pickup was down 12% and car sales were down over 23%. Clearly, Ford's car sales were hurt by the end of fleet sales to car rental companies that Ford decided weren't generating any profits.

Now, SUVs saw tremendous declines the last time gas prices went way up, and oil is heading back up again. But this time buyers aren't buying gas guzzlers without realizing the possibility of a tank of gas costing $100 is quite high. Rather, these affluent buyers don't seem to care. Given the social force of the global warming driven "carbon footprint" movement, it is all the more remarkable that consumers would choose to buy SUVs.

Detroit automakers in general are facing the music these days as Toyota has finally climbed past GM to become the world's number one automaker. But Ford seems to be suffering disproportionately. Chrysler's sales actually rose in April, albeit an anemic 2%.

Ford's saving grace up until now has been the strength of its F-series pickup. These trucks have been the best selling trucks in America for decades and their loyal buyers are among those most suspicious of foreign competition. But with sales on its flagship product falling 13%, the writing is now on the wall.

Something major needs to happen at Ford for a turnaround to work. Ford's management is hardly unaware of the problem. Ironically, Bill Ford was one of the early American proponents of environmentalism and his signature achievement was building one of the most environmentally conscious auto plants in the world. It's going to take more than incremental improvements in salesmanship and design to fix things.

Ford needs to completely re-brand itself around an innovative new design. Ford has admittedly been trying this for a while now, but the new designs really haven't caught on. Ford needs a sea change in leadership at the very top of the company to finally put all of its top talent on the products of the future. Ford finds itself in the awkward position of being a horse company competing against early auto companies. For a significant period, Ford is going to need to sell both horses and cars, but the company would be penny wise and pound foolish if it put any of its top people on its horse operations. Ford needs to put its top talent on the wave of the future, because if it doesn't the company may get put out to pasture.