Please Revive the Doha Round!

Voice of America reports that negotiators from the US, the EU, Brazil, and India are meeting today to try to revive the trade talks that broke down last July.

Too much optimism is probably misplaced at this point because the political considerations surrounding agricultural subsidies that derailed talks before are unchanged. The only real changes at this point are the US-South Korean free trade agreement and months of castigating editorials belaboring the shortsightedness of the Bush administration.

Everyone not party to the US-South Korean free trade agreement is probably concerned about trade distortions that could steal their market share in two of the world's largest economies. This might concern far-sighted economists, but most politicians will probably remain oblivious.

The real unknown then is what impact months of editorials in many of the world's finest newspapers has had on the political will of the folks pulling the negotiators' strings. It is conceivable that Europe is sufficiently concerned about the US going it alone with bilateral trade agreements to sign on to an agreeable treaty. But not terribly likely.

Indeed, the real hope for success at a revived Doha Round lies with Brazil and India. If they reduce their expectations of reduced subsidies from the West, any deal becomes much more workable. Essentially giving in would be political suicide, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. It just probably won't happen.