The Labor Market Effects of Immigration

Immigration in the world today is largely an economic phenomenon. Despite the numerous differences in the structure and function of governments throughout the western world, the world's people are overwhelmingly migrating to the United States, Canada, and Western Europe at the expense of Mexico, Central and South America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa. Indeed, looking at world immigration flows on a purely national basis paints a picture of migrants that move unerringly straight toward the largest concentration of wealth in their immediate proximity. The United States is the destination for well over 95% of Mexican migrants and Western Europe has a similar monopoly on Eastern Europeans.

Given the obvious economic incentives for the immigrants themselves to go wherever their lives will be most quickly improved, the only worthwhile area of study is on the populations already in the destination country and those remaining behind.

For those communities that send a significant portion of their population abroad, immigration is a mixed blessing. The local economy is likely to swell dramatically with remittances from abroad, but the workforce will be decimated by the loss of many of the best workers who receive the greatest potential benefit from moving away. So-called "brain drain" is a very real possibility, but wildly overpopulated countries like China or India are likely to receive competing benefits that overwhelm that force.

Communities that welcome numerous migrants, either explicitly willingly or not, are likely to feel a palpable sense of anger toward those migrants when they add to the labor market and drive down prevailing wages. But immigrants don't join the workforce solely as a source of cheap labor. If the immigrants have any degree of higher education, they are significantly more likely than the native population to start their own small businesses. In a modern service economy, of the type that dominates many of the world's immigration magnets, small businesses that employ fewer than 100 workers are actually one of the greatest sources of job creation. While most immigrants will not likely immediately start a new business upon their arrival, over the course of their lifetimes they are more likely than the general population to choose this path.

The ultimate labor market influence of immigration is likely to be a steep decline in the value of the goods and services that immigrants can produce, and a concomitant rise in the living standards of everyone else in society that is only a consumer of those goods and services.