Peak Oil - Fact or Fiction

Various prognosticators have been warning with increasing volume for the past few decades that world oil production is about to peak. Of course, the fact that they have been wrong up until now in no way can be taken as proof that they will continue to be wrong. The longer that the peak oil prediction has been wrong, the stronger the argument that the top has finally come.

The basic claim that underlies all peak oil predictions is that the world has been using fossil fuel resources far more quickly than they are being replaced. As world energy consumption rises every year, more oil and natural gas needs to be found in order to keep the economy humming.

Ultimately, it is a technical question as to whether or not enough new oil resources will continue to be found to keep the global economy going. But the immutable truth of the matter is largely unknowable, even by most of the people employed in the oil industry. The impact of the peak in world oil production will be so great, however, that even the average Joe is going to need to take actions that take into account how much oil is going to be available.

As time passes and the probability that a peak in world oil production is coming increases, it would behoove most consumers to consider their reliance on oil. It probably doesn't make any sense to sell your car and try biking through rush hour traffic, but taking concrete steps to reduce energy consumption is certainly justified. The beauty of taking steps to reduce energy usage is that the strategy pays off whether or not peak oil occurs. The world is obviously going to be a much poorer place the moment world oil production peaks, but the day that happens is not determinate in the same way as January 29, 2031. Rather, the more energy we use today, the faster known stockpiles are drawn down. Current reserves won't last forever, or even very long, but the longer they last, the longer oil companies have to explore for additional oil.

The problem with reducing oil consumption is that as it drives down demand and lowers prices, it will inevitably reduce the impetus for oil companies to search for more oil. It is much more profitable to search for oil in an environment of $60 a barrel than in a $30 a barrel environment.

Peak oil is certainly coming whether we prepare or not. Yet the consequences of not preparing are immense. It only makes sense to take real steps every day to reduce reliance on oil, and indeed, any resource that is not naturally renewing.